Slightly off-topic for the Gutter, but interesting for its analysis of pop-culture machinery: David Lowery (Camper Van Beethoven, Cracker) says Hits are Black Swans.
“Success in the music business is completely unpredictable. No one can really predict which artists will end up being successful… It’s just that the process of making a hit or a star is irreducibly complex, unpredictable and impossible to model. It can never be duplicated. What worked for one artist doesn’t work for the next artist.”